13/1 Geopolitical Order 1 | Global Governance.pdf
Conclusion
1. Governance asserting the benefits of the greatest number of participating parties has been described and attempted a number of times
2. The First World War produced the plurilateral League of Nations and the Second the multilateral United Nations and the plurilateral EU
3. The progressive governance momentum of the UN and the EU is an obvious threat to the Power Projection of the unilaterally inclined US
4. Progress is multilateral/plurilateral, regress bilateral/unilateral: the outcome rests on the Outer Crescent US versus World Island struggle
AR Research and Opinion
Discussion
Multilateralism, plurilateralism, bilateralism and unilateralism exist as global governance schemes. The new plurilateralism is a scheme of international governance between more than two countries ie not bilateral, but less that ‘a great many’ ie not multilateral. It has come about as a result of the GATT/WTO ‘Most Favoured Nation’ MFN Principle that any favourably low tariff imposed applies to all nations therefore banning discrimination between trading partner nations. The MFN Principle workaround is a plurilateral Free Trade Agreement FTA applying to the trade between the members of the FTA and discriminating against all non members. The EU is the leading example of such a plurilateral FTA (established various external tariffs but much reduced internal tariffs), but with the further radical advance of a Customs Union (common external tariffs no internal tariffs) cum Single Market (common internal regulatory standards so eliminating any barriers obstructing the freedom of movement of the four factors of production: capital, goods, services, labour). Plurilateralism may lead to multilateralism over a period of time by an organic co-ordination of plurilateral treaties into a single multilateral treaty. As systems of governance, multilateralism and plurilateralism give a voice to the weaker parties by their pooling of sovereignty and militate against the stronger parties and their powerful vested interests by an inherent transparency of policy objectives and concomitant regulatory measures, while bilateralism works to strengthen the hand of the stronger party. Unilateralism asserts outright the benefits of the single party to the exclusion of others and is the antonym to multilateralism asserting the benefits of the greatest number of participating parties. The post War trend to multilateralism has seen reverses: (i) the New International Economic Order NIEO 1974 then meeting the increasingly neoliberal Washington Consensus and (ii) major multilateral initiatives now meet Washington nativist rejection as infringements of US sovereignty. However, in early 2020 China, the EU and 15 others agreed a WTO ad hoc appeal body to circumvent Trump World US obstruction and in late 2020 China and the EU concluded in principle a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment CAI: the US is meeting World Island resistance.
AR Research and Opinion
Chronology
1795 |
Kant publishes Zum ewigen Frieden Ein philosophisches Entwurf proposing a ‘Perpetual Peace’ with an International Law based on a confederation of republican states |
1815 |
Five European powers conclude the Congress of Vienna and the Congress of Berlin 1878 but the Triple Alliance vs Triple Entente division leads to the First World War 1914 |
1920 |
Post First World War the League of Nations is founded but fails, post Second World War the multilateral UN is founded 1945 and is provided with many specialist agencies |
1974 |
UN Declaration of Establishment of NIEO based on CERDS: in hindsight the probable peak of the planned approach to promote Third World country trade development |
1990 |
Williamson describes the Bretton Woods UN agencies promoting a reasonably conventional ‘Washington Consensus’ debt trap resolution programme for Latin America |
2001 |
Bush Junior US Presidency 2001 – 2009 sees the start of a unilateral US rejection of foundational multilateral agreements: BWC, ICC, Kyoto Protocol, Ottawa Treaty etc |
2009 |
Obama Presidency sees a limited reversion to the past US engagement in multilateral agreements but the Trump Presidency shows a somewhat chaotic disengagement |
2017 |
Unwilling to accept the necessarily non US legal rulings of multilateral institutions, the US launches a strangling of the WTO Appellate Body by blocking new appointments |
2018 |
The US National Security Advisor Bolton threatens ICC staff with sanctions for their proposed inquiry as an ‘illegitimate court’ into alleged US war crimes in Afghanistan |
2020 |
China, EU and 15 others agree a plurilateral ad hoc appeal body to cover for the existing WTO body being inquorate on Trump World US obstruction of all new appointees |
AR Research and Opinion
Glossary
Bolton |
John Robert 1948 – A National Security Advisor |
Prior association with the American Enterprise Institute, a regime change promoter, unilateralist and EU + UN critic |
Bush Junior |
George Walker 1946 – An unthinking rightist |
US President 2001 – 2009 unluckily starting with the Al Qaida attack on the US ending with the US Credit Crisis |
BWC |
Biological Weapons Convention 1972 |
Verification procedures were problematic: Bolton summarily rejects proposals in 2001 creating diplomatic confusion |
CERDS |
Charter of Economic Rights & Duties of States |
A Charter to provide for the New International Economic Order NIEO to favour and assist the developing countries |
Obama |
Barack Hussein 1961 – A thinking moderate |
US President 2009 – 2017 his moderate form but cautious substance meant a limited reversion to multilateralism |
Ottawa Treaty |
The Anti Personnel Mine Ban Convention |
For elimination of anti personnel landmines as indiscriminate weapons re Geneva Convention amendment 1977 |
Perpetual Peace |
Ewiger Friede A peace programme delineated |
Six immediate steps and three foundational requirements somewhat resemble modern democratic peace theory |
Triple Alliance |
Austria Hungary + Germany + Italy 1882 |
A defensive pact against France and Russia but territorial issues led Italy to declare war on Austria Hungary 1915 |
Triple Entente |
France + Russia + UK 1907 A ménage à trois |
A somewhat uncertain agreement between the two progressive democracies and a regressive autocratic Russia |
Washington Cons’s |
‘Washington Consensus’ of variable meaning |
Entirely conventional policy measures then morphed into an enforced minimal state neoliberal fundamentalism |
AR Research and Opinion
