30/5 Brexit The Aftermath | EU Geopolitics.pdf

Discussion

The intellectual heft of the Schuman 'projet' now involves the Mackinder World Island ‘Inner Crescent + Heartland’ geopolitics. The EU is at the western end of Eurasia, China at the eastern end, a Russia connection and India to the south: the World Island major components. In that perspective, the UK is an Outer Crescent set of small and institutionally alien offshore islands. Eurasia was the centre of world economic activity at 80.9 Real World GDP Percent pre-industrialisation 1820, but that position was reduced by industrialisation occurring, notably in the Outer Crescent Anglosphere, and by the World Island fighting itself to total defeat in the 20th c falling to 48.0 Percent 1950 immediately post War. The Americas were at 4.0 Percent 1820 rising to 35.1 Percent by 1950. The Mackinder geopolitics in the Spykman formulation led to the US World Island Containment policy of Truman 1947 and the extensive US military footprint: notably NATO. However, the US position resolves essentially to the Outer Crescent CANZUKUS Echelon Bloc at a limited 19.9 Percent 2019 (see 14/0 for the Narratives Analysis). The 21st c has been marked by the recovery of the World Island to its predominant position 62.3 Percent 2019. However, for Real GDP Percent figures to have geopolitical effect there has to be coherent policy agreement and the formal geopolitical groupings show more balance than any fanciful playing around with the Percent figures (see 28/0 for the Statistics Analysis). The outstanding feature of the EU is the Acquis Communautaire: a body of legislation, acts and decisions creating EU law: a governance ‘ecology’. While CCP China is an essentially modernised form of the nativist Tianxia 天下 All Under Heaven and Tianming 天命 Mandate of Heaven governance of the Zhou Dynasty 1,046 – 771 BC, it does offer a 21st c solution to Climate Change: the Global Energy Interconnection Project GEI. A combination of the Acquis Communautaire and GEI could conceivably lead to an ‘Acquis Mondial’ eliminating the tacit global alliance of military vested interests extracting value and rent from their domestic economies with its Mutually Assured Destruction MAD nuclear downside. A cheap and cheerful global policing would be sufficient. The EU 'projet' governance ecology is thus of considerable importance given the Lovelock refugia threat.

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